Published online 7 November 2011 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2011.632

News

Experience counts for Nobel laureates

Study of prizewinning scientists suggests greatest discoveries are now made by middle-aged researchers, not young ones.

Zoë Corbyn

How to win a Nobel prize: youthful brilliance has gradually given way to experience.LBNL/SPL

Einstein once commented that "a person who has not made his great contribution to science before the age of thirty will never do so"¹. This may have been an accurate reflection of physics around the quantum mechanics revolution of the 1920s, but it is no longer the case for any field, according to an analysis of the age of Nobel laureates when they performed their prizewinning work. Now, the great discoveries are being made by ever-older scientists.
"Einstein, on this point, does not appear to be correct," says Benjamin Jones, an expert in innovation at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, who co-authored the study. "Scientists are typically getting older and the probability of making a discovery before age 30 has gone way down."
Working with Bruce Weinberg from Ohio State University in Columbus, Jones analysed 525 Nobel prizes awarded in physics, chemistry and medicine between 1900 and 2008. The pair used historical and biographical information to work out how old each laureate was when he or she performed the prizewinning work.
They found that with a few exceptions — notably the quantum mechanics discoveries of the 1920s and 1930s, which were often made by scientists under 30 — the trend across all fields is towards researchers being older when they produce their greatest work.

A victorious age

Comparing discoveries made before 1905 with after 1985, the average age at which physicists made their discoveries rose from 37 to 50. Chemists' average age rose from 36 to 46 and that of medical scientists from 38 to 45. Before 1905, 20% of prizewinning work was done before age 30, but by 2000, this fell to almost zero. The findings are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences².
The age at which Nobel prizewinners do their key work has been studied before, but the emphasis has been on comparing fields, finding physicists are generally younger, rather than looking at changes over time, says Jones. He saw differences between fields too – for example, in chemistry the frequency of discoveries made over 30 and over 40 has increased significantly, whereas medicine has seen an increase in frequency of discoveries made over 30 but less so over 40. In physics, discoveries in the early twentieth century were made very young, before this field too joined the ageing trend.

“The probability of making a great discovery before age 30 has gone way down.”

But these differences are "swamped" by the overall increase in the age of prizewinners over time, says Jones. The same trend was also seen among other top scientists who had not received Nobels.
To explain the ageing effect, Jones and Weinberg suggest a shift from theoretical work, in which youngsters do better, towards experimental work, which requires experience and aggregation of knowledge, and therefore favours older scientists.
They also suggest that as fields expand, it may take longer to accumulate the knowledge necessary to make a novel contribution. With the exception of 1920s physics, the analysis found that, over time, Nobel laureates received their PhDs later and that there has been an increase in discoveries that depend on previous work. This suggests a modern tendency to draw on more established knowledge, a skill at which older scientists excel.

Expensive pursuit

Other experts in scientific creativity welcomed the study but note other reasons why the age of laureates might have increased, such as improvements in health or the fact that, in many fields, research now requires expensive equipment. "21- and 22-year-olds simply don't get access to this kind of equipment," says Paula Stephan at Georgia State University in Atlanta, who provided some data for the Nobel study. She adds that it isn't always possible to pinpoint "one magic date" when scientists made their discoveries.
Jones is cautious about drawing policy conclusions from the paper but notes that the increasing age of academics when they win their first independent research grants — a hot topic in the United States because many are now in their early 40s — could be "less wrong" than some might think. In some cases, he says, "maybe that really is the peak age now."
"It is important for people not to think that they are over the hill when they are 35 or 40," adds Stephan.
British chemist Harry Kroto of Florida State University in Tallahassee, who made his Nobel-prizewinning discovery when he was 46, isn't surprised that scientists are getting older when they make their breakthroughs. But he predicts that there will be a limit. "One tends to be in a rut [as one gets older] as far as doing crazy experiments that no one else has thought of," he says.

ADVERTISEMENT

The anomaly of quantum physics also suggests that, in the case of a scientific revolution where established knowledge can be a hindrance rather than a help, the trend might reverse. This could provide a potential marker for identifying such events in future. "If there are future revolutions out there, it may make people younger yet again," says Jones. 

• References

  1. Brodetsky, S. Nature 150, 698-699 (1942). | Article |
  2. Jones, B. F. & Weinberg, B. A. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. advance online publication http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102895108 (2011).

A realistic look at the language policy

November 15, 2011, 6:26 pm, The Island


By Ariyawansa Ranaweera
ariyawansa.ranaweera@gmail.com

I must salute Mr. Rohana R. Wasala for his timely and balanced article on ‘Language, Culture and Development’ when appeared in your journal on Friday the 28th of October. At a time where a section of our literati attribute in very strident tones, almost all the social and economic ills that affect our country, to the language policy adopted in the late 1950’s R.W’s sober analysis gives the lie to this misguided view.

As he very correctly states in his article "a language of a community is not something that you can take possession of or discard as easily as you can put on or take off a garment." Language of a race is not only a means of communication among its members. It is a cultural construction that nurses a race into maturity. It is a repository of their way of thinking, their perceptions, their beliefs and aspirations, and an embodiment of their way of living. Any living language has these attributes. As it evolves through time, language also grows, and changes with the community. It creates its own words, idioms, proverbs, which are the true reflections of the soul of its people. Look at the whole array of pithy, meaningful, and ironic idioms and proverbs created by the common people. If one forces down the throats of a people an utterly alien language, would this linguistic ebullience prevail? Sinhala is enriched both by sevi-vahara (Language learnt) and jana-vahara (Folk language). These two in turn enrich each other. Prof. K.N.O. Dharmadasa once stated in one of his articles that out of all South Asian Languages, Sinhala alone developed from its very inception as a vibrant language, as it was nurtured by its association with literary creations starting from Seehalattakatha of 3rd century A.C. Any language imbibes from other languages new words and through them the knowledge created by those languages. T.S. Eliot speaking of poetry said in one of his famous essays – Social Function of Poetry – that a true poem can be composed by a poet only through the medium of his own native language. He goes on to say: to force down and alien language, to a community you have to wipe out all the members of that community root and branch. Because originality is inextricably tied up with once own language. Original thinking, Original discoveries, be it in the areas of humanistic or scientific, emanates only through once own indigenous language. This is the very reason why almost all educationist in one voice say, that a child has to be introduced into the world of knowledge through his own native language. Rabindranath Tagore, a strong proponent of Bengali language said this very forcefully, when he said that "a child imbibes his native language with his mother’s milk."

So our lawmakers who introduced both Sinhala and Tamil to be the media of instruction in the late 1950’s did not blunder. On the other hand it was a well thought out policy measure, which brought immense benefits to the majority of the people, as very correctly pointed out RW. He goes on to state very aptly "Ignorance or deliberate repudiation of their own history and culture leads some people to underrate the local language, Sinhala and Tamil for the overwhelming majority of us these languages are vital."

Unfortunately, some of our scholars have the misconceptions that the introduction of the local languages into the main stream of our educational system, was a hastily done exercise in 1956 to pander to the political exigencies of the day. This is far from true. It was in 1944 the Mr. J. R. Jayewardene moved a resolution in the State Council, to declare "Sinhalese as the official language of Ceylon within a reasonable number of years." An amendment was proposed by V. Nalliah, a Tamil State Councilor, for providing both Sinhala and Tamil the status of official languages, and it was seconded by Mr. R. S. S. Gunawardane. The resolution was ratified by 27 to 2 by the legislature. Prof Sasanka Perera, in his piece which appear in The Island (Oct 26, 2011) says "Demand for Swabasha was a protest against the privileges enjoyed by the English educated elite, privileges not open to the masses educated in local languages."

This was the beginning of the move to enshrine local languages, both as official languages and as the media of instruction. As a result in the educational reforms proposed by Dr. C.W.W. Kannangara in 1943; gradual introduction of the local languages, as media of instruction commenced. Its started in 1945 from Grade 1. Year by year this measure was introduced to higher classes. Coincidentally, it reached Grade 11 in 1956, which was the preparatory grade for university entrance, and the 1st batch of undergraduate, who sat the entrance examination in the local languages entered University of Ceylon in 1960. All these facts prove that the language policy adopted by our law makers was not a hasty measure to aimed at political expedience.

Unfortunately, the proponents of enthroning English at the expense of the local languages turn a blind eye either deliberately or otherwise to the immense benefits that accrued to Sri Lankans during the five decades after the introduction of local languages.

In spite of all efforts by our colonial masters and their followers, only a minuscule number of people in the country can handle their affairs in English. R.W. says the percentage is 10%, but I doubt even that figure.

Just think what a catastrophe it would have been, if we had continued to ram English down the throats of a reluctant majority, depriving the masses of their rightful place in the larger society. The rural intelligentsia would have remained marginalized. It was the sagacious language policy which enabled them to come out of the cold, and assert their rightful places in the community. To use a cliché, it really and truly empowered them! If not for the recognition of the local languages, would we have been a true representative democracy? It would have turned out to be an elitist oligarchy, confined to the privileged few, as in the Colbrooke-Cameron days. My guess is that only 10% of our parliamentary representatives are able to converse in English. Such is the case in all other local government institutions. So what? They are the true sons of the representative democracy we cherish.

We pride ourselves on being a nation that has the highest literacy rate in the South Asian region. ‘The Island’ issue of November 1st says, it stands at 92% at present. The news item further says, "The highest literacy rate means that people in that country will be more productive." It is this literacy rate that has enabled us to be almost on par with the developed countries in the Human Development Index. Is this not a direct result of the language policy adopted by us in the late 1950’s? It was the school system which used local languages as the media of instruction, that was instrumental in bringing this mass education to our people, which even a country like India has not been able to achieve so far.

A considerable amount of new knowledge has been created by the university community through local languages. (I am not competent to comment on the scientific field). I have a fleeting acquaintance with the university system as a visiting lecturer. The university dons and the undergraduates conduct some important research into languages, folklore, semantics, journalism, history, archeology, economics and geography etc..., and their research papers and thesis are available in the universities, and some are published. Most of them show much erudition and depth, and intellectual discipline. But the trouble with those who venerate English is that they either scoff at them or they do not possess the language proficiency to read and understand them. The university system by and large performed efficiently the three P’s expected of them through local languages, they being the Protection, Production and Propagation of knowledge.

Then we must turn to the resurgence in the cultural field. Approximately 7,500 books were written in both local languages in the year 2010 according to the National Library Services Board. This number indicates easily a considerable achievement for a small country like ours. And the subjects covered are diverse and varied such as science, philosophy, medicine, psychology, religious works, management, economics, planning and fiction. Thus the local languages play a considerable role as conduits of knowledge to the populace.

Take the area of fiction. We have produced talented writers whose talents and skills easily compare with writers of any other nationality; specially in the fields of poetry and short story.

Drama is another area which has benefitted from the language policy under discussion. The new crop of dramatists, who play a vital role on the local stage, are all products of education gained through local languages. That does not deter them from producing dramas, ranging from Greek and Sanskrit classics from Beckett, Ionesco, Pinter, Dario Fo, besides their own original works.

Preservation of the fundamentals of our traditional dancing, folktales and folk poems by committing them to writing is another area that should be mentioned. All this amply proves the vast benefits of the language policy, which gave pride of place to the local languages.

This does not in any way belittle the importance of teaching English as a link language. No one in his proper senses would contest that. English is a window to the world of wisdom and knowledge. It is the international language which will connect us to the wide world of commerce, industry etc.

What really has gone wrong, in imparting the knowledge of English to our student population is something that has to be discussed separately. Suffice it to say that in our ignorance and negligence, we threw to the winds, all the infrastructural arrangements of English teaching we developed over the years, in the name of restoring the local languages to their rightful position.

Yes. We have to infuse English into our education stream. But in doing so we have to be careful not to destroy all what we have gained over the past decades thanks to our language policy are bound to end up in disaster.

The short sighted hasty measures like starting classes in schools all of a sudden to teach all subjects in English thrusting English as a medium of instruction on university students who used Sinhala and Tamil as their mediums in their entire student career.

I hope the ten year tri-lingual program, Mr. Wasala speaks of in his article has recognized these aspects.

Living In A Nuclear Zone

A new booklet on radiation raises doubt, confusion

November 15, 2011, 8:33 pm


Fumihiko Ito

The Yomiuri Shimbun/ANN

Waking up with the constant threat of radiation exposure has not been easy for the villagers of Fukushima, who, along with their children, are still grappling with the idea of being forced to learn about radiation and living with the risks for a long time.

It does not help that doubts are being raised on new reading materials on the basics of radiation distributed to primary, middle and high schools.

These booklets, produced by the education, culture, sports, science and technology ministry, had been in fact completely revised, as previous versions were criticised after the outbreak of the crisis for including inappropriate descriptions of nuclear power plants and atomic energy.

Still, the latest material contains little information regarding the nuclear crisis and concrete measures to deal with it.

Middle schools have not taught about radiation for 30 years, and how schools use the supplementary materials will be a key issue in teaching about radiation at schools.

The beginning of the booklet for primary school students reads, "After the nuclear accidents occurred, materials that emit radiation leaked from the nuclear power plant." But it does not mention the nuclear crisis in the main text.

According to the ministry, some of the 13 authors of the booklets said they should describe the crisis, including conditions in Fukushima prefecture. However, most insisted it was more important to first provide information to students about radiation, so they would understand how disaster-hit areas were contaminated.

The booklets, for example, write that radiation is constantly present in the natural environment and explain about units such as sieverts and becquerels. They also explain that radiation is used in various fields such as medicine, agriculture and industry, using many pictures.

Regarding human exposure to radiation, the booklets describe external exposure resulting from cosmic rays or X-rays, and internal exposure from ingestion of contaminated food or inhaling radiation.

They also write that Japanese receive an average of about 1.5 millisieverts of radiation annually from natural sources, and the average   individual in the world receives about 2.4 millisieverts annually.

The new material instructs students to keep away from radioactive materials and shorten the time they are exposed to radiation, to protect themselves from it.

To prevent internal exposure, the books instruct students to cover their mouths by using masks or other means, and not to eat food the intake of which has been restricted.

Regarding the connection between radiation doses and health, one booklet says, "There is no clear evidence that people develop cancer from radiation doses below 100 millisieverts. It is not necessary to worry about radiation doses if the radiation comes from the natural environment or common practices such as an X-ray, but it is important to avoid receiving radiation as much as possible."

The booklet for primary students writes, "Radiation does not spread from person to person." An essay in the booklet for high school students also describes the "risk and benefit" theory that is used in medicine.

"When people use something for their benefit, they cannot avoid a certain amount of risk," the column states.

This is implying that nuclear power plants bring benefits such as power supply, and risks such as radiation.

"(The essay) seems to be trying to justify the measures taken by the government regarding the nuclear crisis," said Hosei University professor Takeo Samaki, who specialises in science education.

Confusing facts 

Teachers from the Takinogawa Primary School in Kita Ward in Tokyo decided to hold a lecture on radiation after learning from reports that victims of the nuclear disaster forced to take shelter experienced discrimination.

"It was hard to find material that explains radiation understandably from a neutral standpoint," school principal Shiro Hayashi said.

As part of new teaching guidelines to be fully implemented in middle schools starting in the 2012 academic year, the science guideline which refers to radiation studies for the first time in 30 years—was implemented in the 2009 academic year.

Masaki Kobayashi, 51, a teacher of Kaishin Dai-Ichi Primary School in Nerima Ward, Tokyo, plans to teach about radiation in his science class as early as next year.

"As the supplementary material has too much content," he said, "I’m worried how to teach students about the risks of radiation or how to protect themselves (from radiation) in the limited class time, without leaving them feeling uncertain. Teachers also need to study (about radiation)."

Hisao Oshimizu, 60, principal of Ono Primary School in Okumamachi, Fukushima prefecture, said: "When children go back to their hometown, knowledge about radiation will become necessary. We’d like to teach about it gradually."

The students of the school evacuated as a group to Aizu-Wakamatsu in Fukushima prefecture after the nuclear accident.

Watari Middle School, in the Watari district of Fukushima, measures radiation at the school almost every week. The Watari district has shown radiation levels that are relatively higher than elsewhere in the city.

While the school informs the students’ parents of the radiation levels, it refrains from explaining the effects of radiation to students as it believes the word "radiation" would cause stress for some children, the school said.

Yoshinori Saito, 59, principal of the school, criticised the government’s position on teaching about radiation, saying, "The information (in the new supplementary material) should have been distributed to schools before the (Fukushima) accident happened."

Before producing the new booklets, the government had not provided materials about radiation for primary school students, considering the subject inappropriate for them. After the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the school tried to find study material about radiation on the Internet.

Meanwhile, Hosei University professor Takeo Samaki said: "I don’t think schoolteachers will be able to teach about the effects of radiation on human bodies, which is the most important point, because the material does not clearly describe them. Opinions are divided even among scholars over the bodily effects of a one-time exposure to below 100 millisieverts of radiation. To enable children to make objective judgments, essays expressing various opinions should have been included in the supplementary material," he said.

GMOA members threaten to quit SLMC

November 15, 2011, 10:03 pm

By Don Asoka Wijwewardena, The Island.

Government Medical Officers Association (GMOA) yesterday warned the government that their Association representing about 14,000 doctors would be compelled to resign from Sri Lanka Medical Council (SLMC)membership if the SLMC took action to register 70 RMPs who had presented bogus medical certificates. It was a flagrant violation of the provisions of the Sri Lanka Medical Ordinance slot.

GMOA General Secretary Dr.Chandika Epitakaduwa said an emergency General Committee meeting scheduled for November 17 would take a final decision on the issue. The RMPs/ AMPs had been detailed in most rural district hospitals to treat minor ailments. For serious cases they were required to hand them over to qualified M.B.B.S. doctors.

The G.M.O.A. was constrained to take some painful decisions, because 70 AMPs/RMPs had been asking the SLMC to recognize their medical certificates. They had claimed that they completed three –year training in General Medicine in St.Petersburg Medical School in Russia. But these AMPs on the pretext of studying medicine three years at St. Petersburg Medical School had never gone to Russia and some had gone to Russia for two months.

Although they had not completed the required studies three years, they had engineered to present bogus medical certificates certifying three years training. The G.M.O.A. knew from a reliable source that these AMPs had only completed 6 months training through visiting lecturers. The SLMC wanted to know the exact places of training of these AMPs. They had given two addresses. The SLMC came to know that those places mentioned by the AMPs were rather doubtful, the G.M.O.A. General Secretary claimed.

GMOA Assistant Secretary Dr.Upul Gunasekere said that the SLMC complained to the police to carry out further investigation to find out whether the places mentioned were meant for medical education purposes. The CID which investigated the matter found that the addresses mentioned were completely wrong and misleading.

He added that three prerequisites were essential for a doctor to practice medicine in Sri Lanka. He or she should be a citizen of Sri Lanka, should have an impeccable character and should have a recognized medical degree. In addition he or she should have passed Act 16 examination in accordance with the Section 29 of the Sri Lanka Medical Ordinance.

Three hurt in Colombo University clash

Dailymirror

The Colombo University Arts and Science faculties were made out of bounds for students yesterday following a clash between two student factions from the two faculties on Monday night.
Three students who were injured in the clash had been admitted to the National Hospital and hospital sources said that they had been discharged after receiving treatSee ment. needed in the Province after the Business Turnover Tax collection was handed over to the Central Government in keeping with last year’s budget proposal. He said the officers engaged in collecting revenue would be given alternate tasks in the council while the others who have reached retirement age would be asked to retire.
The Daily Mirror learns that the offices in the province are to be closed down by December this year.
Meanwhile, Southern Province Chief Minister Shan Wijayalal told the Daily Mirror that the workload of the officers attached to revenue collection centres would be reduced by this move.

However he said these officers need not panic about their job security since they would be required to discharge other responsible duties like the collection of other taxes such as stamp duty.
Mr. Wijayalal said there is no intention of closing down revenue offices in his province.
Central Provincial council opposition leader Sanjeewa Kaviratne charged that there was a sinister move by the government to close down revenue offices in the provinces that are engaged in collecting taxes.
Mr. Kaviratne made this point with regard to a recent gazette notification announcing the closure of some revenue offices of the Eastern Provincial Council.
He said the provincial councils were losing 40 per cent of their revenue through this move, adding that this could not be done without passing an Act in Parliament.

Uni. Non-academic staff meet today to fix strike date

November 15, 2011, 9:44 pm

by Dasun Edirisinghe, The Island.

University non-academic staff will meet today in Colombo to decide on a date for the launch of their continuous strike demanding their salary anomalies be rectified immediately.

President of the Inter University Trade Union Federation R. M. Chandrapala told The Island that at their last meeting, the executive committee decided to launch a continuous strike if the government kept silent on their sick note campaign which was staged on Nov. 02.

"The Government has yet to respond to our sick note campaign despite two weeks passing," he said.

The trade unionist said that through their token strike on Nov. 02, they had reminded the government again that the universities could not run without their support. All non-academic trade unions of the universities including administrative and executive officers, would support the trade union action, he said.

Chandrapala said that they were fighting for the correction of their anomalies since 2006 as all successive government’s cheated them.

"We launched our newest approach to the protest on Aug. 03 by holding a protest opposite the University Grants Commission," he said.

Chandrapala said that they held several rounds of discussions with the National Salaries and Cadred Commission (NSCC), but they too had turned a deaf ear on the issue.